BAYER CROPSCIENCE LTD

4325.9 -0.65 (-0.01%) Sell

Search for alternative investments is on for BAYERCROP investors as it performed worse than the broader market

13 min read

BAYERCROP underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in BAYER CROPSCIENCE LTD made +0.1% per day. Friday's performance of -0.01% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

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Buy-and-Hold investors in BAYERCROP experienced a maximum drawdown of -11.16% over the last three months. It gained +3.19% during this up trending period. There were no long signals during this period. However, the short signal was not profitable and lost investors -3.19%.

Trend

BAYERCROP has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, BAYERCROP underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.

BAYERCROP was profitable on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.06% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -9.63%, during this period, on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 26 Nov, 2018 and went on till 4 Dec, 2018. The bullish trend returned +7.51% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Jan, 2019 and ended on 15 Jan, 2019. This bearish trend lost -1.5% of investor capital.

BAYERCROP had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, BAYERCROP underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. BAYERCROP was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -16.6% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. BAYERCROP had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from May 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -17.86%. It is interesting to note that both BAYERCROP and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
-- Philip Arthur Fisher

BAYERCROP is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in BAYERCROP's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 14 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BAYERCROP has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that BAYERCROP is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BAYERCROP. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than BAYERCROP in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BAYERCROP.

On a general note (since you are interested in BAYERCROP), three instruments that are extremely volatile are NIFTY50-DIV-POINT, SRIPIPES and HATSUN. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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