BAL PHARMA LTD.

78.75 -0.89 (-1.13%) Sell

BALPHARMA continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

13 min read

BALPHARMA underperformed broader market today. On a longer term basis, investors in BAL PHARMA LTD. made +0.1% per day. Friday's performance of -1.13% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing BALPHARMA]

BALPHARMA showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period BALPHARMA delivered -3.85% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.78%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in BALPHARMA till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

Trend

BALPHARMA has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 12 Jan, 2016 to 27 Jul, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, BALPHARMA underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months BALPHARMA was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.05% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.69%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.2%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and ended on 19 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.03% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw BALPHARMA's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. BALPHARMA was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. BALPHARMA was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -18.73% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. BALPHARMA had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019) during which period it delivered -3.28%. It is interesting to note that both BALPHARMA and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Many folks think they aren't good at earning money, when what they don't know is how to use it.
-- Frank A. Clark

BALPHARMA is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in BALPHARMA's volatility from 12 Nov, 2018 to 16 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BALPHARMA has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that BALPHARMA is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BALPHARMA. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than BALPHARMA in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BALPHARMA.

Based on your interest in BALPHARMA you may find it interesting to know that NIFTY-GS-15YRPLUS has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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