AVT NATURAL PRODUCTS LTD

26.25 -0.15 (-0.57%) Sell

AVTNPL continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

13 min read

AVT NATURAL PRODUCTS LTD showed weakness on Friday. It fell by -0.57% to close at 26.25. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 31% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing AVTNPL]

AVTNPL is currently in a bearish trend. The previous short signal in AVTNPL has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on AVTNPL at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.

Trend

AVTNPL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 27 Dec, 2017 to 18 Jan, 2019. One must note that AVTNPL is currently at it's worst performance to the NIFTY-50 index which makes it a bad investment candidate. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, AVTNPL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 55% days.

During the last three months AVTNPL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.02% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.04%) was on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.81%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 22 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.59% of investor capital.

During the last year AVTNPL had 2 profitable months and 10 loss making months. AVTNPL returned profits in fewer months than NIFTY-50 index. AVTNPL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -17.1% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. AVTNPL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -38.4%. It is interesting to note that both AVTNPL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

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AVTNPL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in AVTNPL's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AVTNPL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that AVTNPL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than AVTNPL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than AVTNPL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AVTNPL.

Based on your interest in AVTNPL you may find it interesting to know that ~CHEMICALS has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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