182.6 -9.03 (-4.95%) Buy

AJMERA investors treading cautiously as performance is muted

13 min read

AJMERA REALTY & INF I LTD is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It lost -4.95% to close at 182.6. It is currently trading -46% below it's 52 week high of 340.6.

[Themes containing AJMERA]

AJMERA is currently in a up trend. Over the last three months 3 bullish signals in AJMERA have generated a profit of +8.04% for investors.


AJMERA has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, AJMERA underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months AJMERA was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.4% per day. It's best return during this period (of +13.67%) was on Wednesday, 19 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.45%) was on Friday, 21 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +17.64% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -12.23% of investor capital.

AJMERA had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of AJMERA and NIFTY-50 index were the same. AJMERA was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -27.98% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. AJMERA had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -33.0%. It is interesting to note that both AJMERA and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Everything is always feasible if you run a corporate finance exercise: you can always try to come out with a justification on how things could work. But the real issue is to say how do you translate that into practice.

AJMERA is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in AJMERA's volatility from 22 Nov, 2018 to 19 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AJMERA has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that AJMERA is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than AJMERA. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than AJMERA in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AJMERA.

On a general note (since you are interested in AJMERA), two instruments that deserve special mention are BAJFINANCE and ~CHEMICALS. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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