308.05 -6.8 (-2.21%) Sell

AHLUCONT is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

AHLUWALIA CONT IND LTD was among the worst performers today. It lost -2.21% to close at 308.05. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.76%, -0.2%, +0.8%, -0.81% and -0.09%.

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AHLUCONT showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period AHLUCONT gained +8.45% and saw a maximum drawdown of -13.18%. There were 3 long signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +7.49% to investors.


AHLUCONT has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 12 May, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, AHLUCONT underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days AHLUCONT underperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

AHLUCONT returned losses on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.17% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +7.05%, during this period, on Monday, 31 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 22 Nov, 2018 and went on till 28 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -10.96% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 13 Dec, 2018 and ended on 20 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +21.01% to investors.

AHLUCONT had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, AHLUCONT underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. AHLUCONT significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Dec 2018, when it returned +14.64% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. AHLUCONT had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from May 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered -40.91%. It is interesting to note that both AHLUCONT and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

All intelligent investing is value investing - acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock .
-- Charles Thomas Munger

AHLUCONT is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in AHLUCONT's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 18 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AHLUCONT has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that AHLUCONT is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

AHLUCONT has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, AHLUCONT must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AHLUCONT.

On a general note (since you are interested in AHLUCONT), ~CHEMICALS has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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