216.0 -4.26 (-1.97%) Buy

ADANITRANS investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

ADANI TRANSMISSION LTD significantly underperformed on Friday. It fell by -1.97% to close at 216.0. It is currently trading +79% above it's 52 week low of 120.4 and is down only -13% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing ADANITRANS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in ADANITRANS experienced a maximum drawdown of -21.84% over the last three months. It delivered +34.96% during this strong bullish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +9.18%.


ADANITRANS has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 27 May, 2016 to 27 Nov, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ADANITRANS outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days ADANITRANS outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

During the last three months ADANITRANS was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.52% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.99%) was on Wednesday, 14 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.97%) was on Thursday, 29 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 7 profitable days, which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and went on till 21 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +33.8% to investors.

During the last year ADANITRANS had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. ADANITRANS returned profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ADANITRANS significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +35.24% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. ADANITRANS had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -39.62%. It is interesting to note that both ADANITRANS and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"There is no one-decision stocks

ADANITRANS is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ADANITRANS's volatility from 15 Nov, 2018 to 7 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ADANITRANS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ADANITRANS. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ADANITRANS in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ADANITRANS.

Based on your interest in ADANITRANS you may find it interesting to know that ~MKTCAP201TO250 and BAJFINANCE have both shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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